Have Toronto condo prices really been on an unsustainable rise?

I’ve been selling Toronto Condos for more than a decade and many people say that the market has gone straight up and has seen unsustainable gains. But looking back, I can tell you first hand, that the market has been a little bit of a roller coaster ride, but luckily to the upside.

There have been many events that have impacted the Toronto Condo Market. At the start of the decade we had the high tech bubble or crash. Toronto had more than 30 % of Canada’s high tech businesses and most were centered downtown. Once the startup companies that were once selling for millions had gone bust, many people were left unemployed and seeking work elsewhere. The drop in demand and big job losses caused housing prices to drop.

The tragedy of September 11, 2001 took the world by surprise and Toronto was not immune. There was stock market instability and worldwide fear of condo living and working in high rise buildings. Sales here too slumped and prices declined.

2003 was a year many Torontonians will never forget. The impact of SARS had plagued Toronto with a stigma of fear. It was a type of flu that people were afraid to leave there homes and buyers refused to visit properties in fear of catching the virus. The real estate market died at this point as activity was at an all time low.

As affordability has always been an issue in downtown Toronto, another challenge was announced in 2007 for the introduction of a second Land Transfer Tax by the City of Toronto. Taken into effect in February 2008, buyers went elsewhere to the 905 region to avoid the tax and sales once again dropped.

Then the Banking crisis of 2008 that caused mortgage lending and housing to completely collapse in the United States, caused a 10% price correction in Toronto over a 9 month period even though we had sustainable debt ratios on mortgages thanks to Canada’s mortgage regulations. The uncertainty of financial times stopped buyers altogether.

July of 2010, had the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) combining both the provincial and federal sales tax on all goods including new construction and real estate services which caused a slow down in the real estate markets as people adjusted.

We still continue to have worldwide economic problems with the Euro Debt Crisis and the Debt ceiling issues and recession worries in the United States, that have caused people to postpone any buying and selling decisions. This uncertainty slows activity but at this point prices continue to hold steady as we wait out this period.

In summary, what is truly amazing is how resilient our condo market has been over the past decade. Why does it keep bouncing back? The primary reason is the underlying economic fundamentals have not changed. Toronto is Canada’s financial capital and businesses continue to flock here. Toronto has become one of the big international cities and more people want to live here especially downtown. Toronto continually has close to 100,000 people migrating here each year and they need a place to live. Looking forward, the Toronto condo market will continue to grow and yes there will be setbacks along the way.

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Reza Afshar
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